It's really a bit of a mystery as Morrissey only makes self-serving comments and Capitol has said, well, nothing. You make some good points and sales figures and such. Supposedly this deal came about after the disappointing sales of IANADOAC and the damage done from 2017-2019 it would seem that Capitol knew what they were getting.
Did Morrissey indicate he would do more to promote BOT and then after the Greek theatre walk out they quickly lost faith? Maybe offer Morrissey a chance to return the advance and get BOT back? When he refused they decided to take the loss and move on?
I'm guessing it wasn't one thing but a combination of things that made Capitol decide not to release BOT. Then of course the question remains... was there ever really a deal with Capitol?
This is exactly it – there may have been an agreement in principle, or any number of other things, but we will never really know until someone – perhaps Morissey himself – releases emails, communiqués or gives definitive details about what happened, at least from his perspective. We are not owed that information, of course, and maybe he thinks airing that would be counterproductive. It is entirely possible that Capitol acted dishonestly, or had buyers remorse, and now the extrication process is difficult if not impossible – because of Miley, because of money, who knows?
I think it's relevant to remind people of a pattern, particularly when it comes to releases and labels and Morrissey in the recent past.
World Peace had a bunch of singles, remixes and besides that were briefly listed on Amazon and some other places, were "announced" by Morissey without ever having Harvest themselves confirming things – remember they did make the album release and Morrissey signed a fairly big announcement, and they did do an entire promotional rollout, the spoken word music videos, the handwritten lyrics sheets deluxe album, the hot topic orange vinyl exclusive. And then, for reasons that aren't still clear (with Morrissey alleging sabotage), the deal ended the album disappeared, and it's nowhere to be found except on the secondary market. Again there is at least a good possibility that Morrissey himself got out in front of the announcements before things were ready before sales targets were hit, and then began loudly protesting when things didn't line up with what his own projections and understandings were.
It was, to me at least, a little bit of an unexpected miracle, when he got Signed to BMG for Low in High School. California Son, and I Am Not A Dog on A Chain. Remember, that "rainbow Valley"" single that was supposed to appear first in the California son cycle and then in the dog in a chain cycle. And obviously, neither of those things ever occurred. I'm not saying Moz bears sole responsibility for any miscommunication, unfulfilled promises, or whatever, but there is a bit of a confusing pattern.
I also think record company's film companies book publishers etc. could do a lot better promoting artists that are not already likely to sell millions upon units, so I'm sure there's things that every record company could be doing better, but I also think that public communications and promotions of unconfirmed things – things that weren't even available for pre-ordering (officially) is an emergent pattern with Moz over the past decade, and I think it's fair to articulate that